Longevity explained

by Sergey Young

4 Longevity Scenarios For The Year 2040

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April 05, 2021

In the “Future of Longevity Impact Roadmap” that was recently created by Longevity Vision Fund team in partnership with XPRIZE, we came up with four scenarios to bring to life the possible futures of longevity — dystopian, business as usual, incremental, and transformative — each of which is plausible in its own way. The purpose of these future scenarios is to encourage us to think about some of our choices today, as well as where they could lead us. Each scenario contains a different mixture of grand challenges that have gone unheeded as well as certain breakthroughs that have helped to mitigate them. Let’s look at these four scenarios ranging from more pessimistic options to optimistic ones and make conclusions about what actions we want to take to achieve the desired future.

Scenario #1: The Collapsed Future

The global elderly population has more than doubled in proportion, with massive negative implications to society and infrastructure. Attempts to provide adequate healthcare and housing to the aging population have failed miserably. Few people believe in the concept of healthy life extension or age-reversal. The scientific foundations necessary for achieving longevity breakthroughs are not yet successfully laid or accepted. Governments refuse to accept aging as a treatable condition or fund research in the field in any significant way. Pharmaceutical firms generally ignore research and development in the field of life extension and age-reversal. Most aging-related diseases, including cancer, Alzheimer’s, and recently discovered illnesses, remain without a cure.

Scenario #2: Business as Usual

More and more people believe that life extension and even age-reversal will become possible in a few decades. The public is, therefore, both aware of the potential and excited about the prospects for the future. Disagreement among the academic and medical community, however, has led to difficulties in achieving a standard set of aging biomarkers. As no robust theory of aging has been conceived, there is no holistic understanding of the aging process. Early longevity treatments are ineffective at best or act as placebos at worst.


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